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2012
Fidler’s Preemptive Strike
Dec 14th - 3:37 pm
Two readers have forwarded me a full-page ad that’s running in Hamodia, an Orthodox Jewish weekly newspaper in NYC, and touts $15 million in “direct funding” directed to a wide variety of Jewish organizations by Brooklyn Councilman Lew Fidler, who is gearing up for a state Senate run next fall.
The ad appears after the jump. I particularly like the tagline, which doesn’t beat around the bush: “Talk is cheap. Lew Fidler gets things done. For us.” And also, check out the fiddle logo. Fidler, fiddle. Cute.
Fidler doesn’t usually advertise in Hamodia, I’m told.
While this isn’t a huge investment (a full-page ad set him back several thousand dollars), this move was described by two different people as a “pre-emptive” strike by the Democratic councilman – just in case anyone hasn’t yet gotten the message that he intends to run, either for Sen. Carl Kruger’s seat, assuming Kruger 1) is convicted of a felony in his corruption trial, which is scheduled to start Jan. 17, or 2) resigns as part of a plea deal; or for the so-called “super” Jewish district Senate Republicans are dreaming of having tailor-made for Fidler’s former Council colleague, Simcha Felder.
(Yes, Felder, currently working for scandal-scarred NYC Comptroller John Liu, is a Democrat, but he’s also politically malleable and has a history of supporting Mayor Bloomberg, who has been the Senate GOP’s most significant individual contributor in recent years).
One Brooklyn Democrat with a lot of experience in the often rough waters of Jewish politics, called Fidler’s ad “smart,” adding: “It’s strong out of the gate and a sign he won’t make the same mistakes as David Weprin.”
Assemblyman Weprin, as you’ll recall, was thought to have the Jewish vote in the NY-9 special election sewn up, thanks to his history of supporting Israel and the fact that he’s an Orthodox Jew himself. But his “yes” vote on same-sex marriage and former NYC Mayor Ed Koch’s decision to cross party lines and back Republican Bob Turner to “send a message” about his displeasure with the Obama administration’s Israel policy helped tank him with his own people, so to speak.
I spoke with Fidler briefly this afternoon, and he had this to say about his ad:
“The answer is, I’m very proud of most of the things that I do, and I want people to know about them. I also just want to be prepared for whatever might come down the path in the not so distant future.”
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Considering the fact that Kruger’s trial is about to start, AND the redistricting battle is about to heat up in a big way, AND New York’s primary date could be moved into the summer (if legislators make a deal; otherwise, we might have three separate contests, including the usual one in September for state lawmakers), Fidler is wise to get a jump on things. In mid-July, he reported raising $331,624 in a newly-formed campaign committee.
Skelos: Three Primaries Not Ideal
Dec 13th - 1:17 pm
Props to Ken at The DN for bringing Senate Majority Leader Dean Skelos back down the hallway for another quick chat, this time on the odds of 2012 giving us a bount of three primaries, a possibility that hines on a judge’s ruling at the end of the month.
Judge Gary Sharpe indicated yesterday that he would consider setting August as the state’s federal primary date for House and Senate elections in order for New York to comply with the federal MOVE Act. Assembly Speaker Sheldon Silver wants June; Skelos has called for an August primary.
Skelos, like Silver, said it’s not ideal to have three primaries, but seemed resigned to the idea.
“In a presidential year you’re going to have two no matter what,” he said. “It’s not the best thing, we’ll wait to see the judges’ decision, but again I think August is the totally appropriate time to do it. If Shelly refuses to pass legislation, if judge rules August, then that’s the end of it.”
Asked if there was a chance some sort of deal could be worked out on the primary date, Skelos shrugged.
“I had such an exciting week last week that I’m saving some of the excitment for all of you down the road,” he said.
Silver: Three Primaries Are ‘Last Resort’
Dec 13th - 11:37 am
Unsurprisingly, Assembly Speaker Sheldon Silver endorsed a June primary in a letter sent to U.S. District Court Judge Gary Sharpe as most Democrats have.
But Silver, D-Manhattan, buries the lede when he writes at the end of the letter:
“The Assembly feels so strongly regarding the utter disruptiveness of an August primary that should this Court order one, we would then, as a last resort, be compelled to advocate for a separate state and local primary for September.”
Senate Republicans strongly back an August primary in order to comply with the federal MOVE Act, which requires timely military and overseas absentee ballots and the U.S. Justice Department is suing the state to comply with act. Sharpe held a hearing on Monday to say he would rule toward the end of the month on the issue, but indicated he was leaning toward an August date.
Republicans argue that a June primary would create a chaotic situation at the end of the legislative session. But there are concerns that an August date would make for low voter turnout.
New York typically holds its party primaries in the middle of September, but after the Department of Defense denied the state yet another waiver, the 2012 political calendar will likely be upended.
The ruling has the potential to set up three separate primary dates come 2012: one for the presidential primary, another for House and Senate races and a third for state and local elections.
Sharpe said he would consider Silver’s letter, along with the briefs filed by Senate Republicans, election commissioners and good-government groups when he renders his decision.
Sharpe To Rule On Primary By Dec. 27
Dec 12th - 4:37 pm
U.S. District Court Judge Gary Sharpe indicated today that he would decide on the state’s federal primary by Dec. 27.
And Sharpe indicated that he was inclined to rule on holding an August primary for House and Senate elections so that the state can comply with the federal MOVE Act.
“I would give force to the judgment already rendered,” he said.
All 212 seats in the Legislature are up for re-election next year. New York traditionally holds its party primaries September.
Sharpe told attorneys for the U.S. Justice Department, the state attorney general’s office and Senate Republicans to submit briefs outlining their positions within seven days. The parties would have seven days to respond to those briefs.
Sharpe said he would rule two weeks from today, Dec. 26, a federal holiday, making the following Tuesday the earliest the ruling would likely become known.
Sharpe said from the bench that he wanted specific proposals on when the primary should be held, while expressing frustration that none of the parties have provided specific dates for a possible primary.
“I would like concrete proposals on what sort of language I ought to include in an order,” Sharpe said.
Though Sharpe rejected a motion by Senate Republicans that pushed for an August primary and, in a separate brief, urged him to rule on a date, Sharpe essentially backed the essence of what the GOP conference called for in his pronouncement.
Depending on how Sharpe rules, the state could be in line for three primaries: one for the presidential primary, one for the House and Senate seats and another for state and local elections.
The DOJ is suing New York in order to comply with a federal law that requires states to send out overseas ballots 45 days before an election.
New York traditionally holds its primary in the middle of September, while the DOJ is pushing for a date of no later than Aug. 18.
Democrats want a June primary, but Senate Republicans argue that would throw the Legislature into “chaos” and back an August primary. Good-government groups say a late-summer primary, however, would create low voter turnout.
The Department of Defense this year denied a waiver from the law. New York had asked for — and up until this point received – the waiver from the 2008 law each year since its approval. Gov. Andrew Cuomo has said he wants to stay out of the process.
Complicating matters is next year’s round of redistricting. Cuomo has promised to veto lines drawn by lawmakers, which will then throw the process to the courts. The potentially protracted battle has upended New York’s political calendar, making next year’s legislative session already a potentially charged one.
Tax Code Implications For 2012
Dec 12th - 10:36 am
Here’s a sentence you don’t read everyday: Democrats today are gleeful over a New York Post editorial.
No, really. The Post’s conservative editorial board blasted the Senate GOP for what it saw as caving on Gov. Andrew Cuomo’s tax overhaul measure, writing that the complicit Republicans essentially “lied” about their stance on taxes.
And today Democrats are sending out a fundraising letter penned by Senate Democratic Campaign Committee Chairman Mike Gianaris comparing the Senate GOP to Mitt Romney, the presidential candidate who they just endorsed.
Writes Gianaris:
This makes sense since they clearly embrace his flip-flopping technique. Truth is: you just can’t trust that what Senate Republicans promise in order to get elected is what they’ll actually do when governing, and New Yorkers know when we’re being hoodwinked. So let’s keep the pressure on and see if we can’t get the Senate Republicans to flip-flop on a few more key issues that New Yorkers overwhelmingly support.
The flip-flopping critique a is a potent one in politics. Senate Democrats ought to be careful to not apply that critique too broadly, given that Cuomo, their party’s leader, had to shift his position on taxes as well.
So was Senate Majority Leader Dean Skelos rolled on this? Hardly.
Getting an overhaul of the tax code — which Republicans can spin as a tax cut thanks to an end-of-the-year expiring surcharge — was perhaps the best deal the 32-member majority could have gotten considering the circumstances.
Consider this:
-Two of the most important issues for liberal voters in a Democratic state, same-sex marriage and the so-called “millionaires tax,” are resolved heading into an election year.
-A major issue for suburban swing voters, the controversial MTA payroll tax, was partially repealed for businesses and schools and the GOP was able to make those cuts permanent.
-Republicans can point to a $300 to $400 a year tax cut for most New York families.
Some Democratic lawmakers have indicated they want more revenue-raisers next year in order to fill the remaining budget gap, which now stands at around $2 billion. And Republicans still face an uphill battle when it comes to redistricting. Even if lawmakers redraw their own boundaries (which, given voter enrollment, will have to look pretty crazy in order to stack the deck for Republican senators), a presidential election year will makes their majority tenuous.
Look to Republicans next year making their adjusted three-pronged argument. First, they’ll tout their bipartisanship. Secondly, they’ll cheer the tax cut (or millionaires tax adjustment). And lastly, they’ll remind everyone as much as possible the chaos that reined during the Democrats’ single two-year term in the majority.
The last point may not be as potent, given that Cuomo has become, for now, a stabilizing force in New York government.
Turner Touted To Take On Gillibrand
Dec 12th - 8:22 am
It could turn out to be an embarrassment of riches for E. O’Brien Murray.
Not one, but two Republicans connected to the veteran operative have been approached by party leaders and asked to consider challenging New York’s junior senator, Democrat Kirsten Gillibrand, next fall. And both are mulling it over.
As the NY Post reported this morning, Marc Cenedella, a 41-year-old Fredonia native and founder of the job-funding Website TheLadders.com, is in discussions with O’Brien about entering the political arena.
He has already discussed his possible U.S. Senate candidacy with state GOP Chairman Ed Cox and Conservative Party Chairman Mike Long.
In addition, according to Murray, freshman Rep. Bob Turner, whom Murray helped guide to an unexpected victory this fall, has also “repeatedly” been asked to run against Gillibrand and is considering it.
“Marc or Bob would be a great candidate against (Gillibrand),” O’Brien said in an early-morning email. “These are two people who have put New Yorkers to work. They have made payrolls, she hasn’t.”
“Marc Cenedella has helped millions of people get jobs. Bob Turner has reached across the aisle to show he can build support from all parties. Marc can put New York back to work and Bob has a proven track record of winning in Democratic areas. Either one could beat her.”
Gillibrand won her first statewide election last fall, easily beating former Rep. Joe DioGuardi, who defeated Bruce Blakeman and David Malpass in a GOP primary after he petitioned his way onto the ballot.
But Gillibrand’s poll numbers have remained fairly anemic, even as she has raised her profile by taking prominent roles in everything from DOMA to the Zadroga Act.
Committee To Save NY Hires New Firm, Launches New Ad
Dec 9th - 3:16 pm
The pro-Cuomo, business-backed Committee to Save Nwe York is back – as promised – and it’s getting an early jump on the 2012 session with a new TV ad that continues the governor’s new theme of “getting things done” in Albany while Rome Washington burns to the south.
The ad, which is the first in a series, hits the airwaves tonight in a “sizable” buy, according to the committee’s new spokesman, former Pataki administration spokesman Mike McKeon. (More on that later). The spot lauds the tax code deal, saying it gives a break to “all New Yorkers” and includes the “lowest middle income tax rate in 58 years.” Here’s the tagline:
CSNY spent close to $10 million to support Cuomo in the budget battle (such as it was) earlier this year, and has pledged to raise and spend about the same in 2012. The committee was gearing up for a fight against reinstating the so-called millionaire’s tax, but following this week’s tax code deal – which, by the way, every key CSNY player, from Kathy Wylde to Steve Spinola to the state Business Council, supported – they’ve re-tooled their agenda.
The top priorities for 2012 now include: Continue fiscal discipline by “working to reduce spending by $2 billion will help balance the budget and increase New York’s competitive edge,” enacting pension reform, passing mandate relief and regulatory reform, and legalizing non-Indian casino gambling. The committe has also re-launched its Website.
McKeon’s firm, Mercury Public Affairs, is replacing DKC in handling the committee’s communications and lobbying. I reported last month that DKC, which has strong and long-standing ties to Cuomo, had decided not to continue its contract with CSNY.
Mercury is home to a number of former Pataki administration aides – McKeon, Kieran Mahoney, Tom Doherty. But it has expanded considerably and also includes a number of Democrats like former Bronx BP Freddy Ferrer and former California Assembly Speaker Fabian Nunez – among others.
This isn’t the first time McKeon has worked to support Cuomo. During the 2010 campaign he headed up a committee of Republicans who crossed party lines to support the Democratic governor – a move that didn’t thrill Pataki, who backed former Rep. Rick Lazio’s failed gubernatorial campaign.
Assembly GOPers For Romney
Dec 9th - 7:56 am
On the heels of Newt Gringrich’s high-profile NYC visit, two dozen Assembly Republicans – including Minority Leader Brian Kolb – have announced their support for the ex-House speaker’s top rival for the 2012 GOP nod (this week, anyway): Former Massachusetts’ Gov. Mitt Romney.
“Mitt Romney is the one candidate with the values and experience that will be needed to go up against President Obama in November,” Kolb said in a statement released by the Romney campaign.
“Throughout his life, Mitt Romney has displayed leadership in tough situations – that is exactly what will be needed to turn around our economy.”
Also backing Romney are the following Assembly members:
George Amedore, William Barclay, Phil Boyle, Dan Burling, Marc Butler, Nancy Calhoun, Robert Castelli, Jim Conte, Jane Corwin, Janet Duprey, Gary Finch, Joe Giglio, Al Graf, Steve Hawley, Tony Jordan, Daniel Losquadro, Marc Molinaro (departing to become Dutchess County executive), Mike Montesano, Dean Murray, Bob Oaks, Theresa Sayward, Lou Tobacco, Ray Walter. UPDATE: I just received an email from Assemblyman John Ceretto was accidentally left off this list. He’s supporting Romney, too.
Romney is quickly amassing support among New York’s Republicans. (Heading up his efforts here is a seasoned GOP consultant, Rob Cole, who spent a number of years working for ex-Gov. George Pataki).
Late last month, Senate Majority Leader Dean Skelos announced his support for the two-time presidential hopeful, and sources familiar with the GOP conference say the majority of its members are likely to follow suit soon.
(ICYMI: I asked Skelos during a CapTon interview Wednesday about Gov. Andrew Cuomo’s potential 2016 run, and he said if he were a Democrat, he would be taking a careful look at the governor. He stopped short of crossing party lines to endorse Cuomo, however, saying simply: “I’m a Republican).
While President Obama’s approval rating has hovered just under the 50 percent mark here in New York, few really consider the Democrat-dominated state in play next year.
The selection of a GOP contender is of particular interest to the Senate Republicans, who need to get as much of their base as possible out to vote next year as they battle to retain control of the chamber following the redrawing – and if Cuomo has his way, ungerrymandering – of lines for the 62 (63? 61?) districts.
Hope Springs Eternal (Updated)
Dec 8th - 2:05 pm
ICYMI: Senate Majority Leader Dean Skelos expressed optimism during a CapTon interview last night that a compromise will be brokered on redistricting, despite Gov. Andrew Cuomo’s repeated pledge that he will veto any partisan plans.
“I think that when the governor sees the plans he’s going to see that they’re fair, and he’ll make a decision at that time,” the Long Island Republican said toward the end of our chat in his conference room yesterday afternoon.
When I asked Skelos if he had some sort of indication from Cuomo on that, the majority leader replied:
“I haven’t talked to him about that. We’ll see…His tone has changed in different areas, so, you know, that’s the next issue. Right now, we’re dealing with what’s before us, and that’s straightening out the state – fiscally – and creating jobs. That’s our focus right now.”
Cuomo’s tone has indeed changed on redistricting, swinging from a definitive “no way” to a recognition that a veto would cause “chaos” that puts the final decision in a judge’s hands (in other words, out of reach of the governor’s influence).
Last night, however, the governor was back in the “no way” corner, saying without the slightest degree of hedging that he will veto any plan that isn’t drawn up by an independent commission.
It seems a little late for that, although Assembly Speaker Sheldon Silver floated a sort of quasi-independent compromise commission a few weeks ago (he told me yesterday that he hasn’t heard a word about that idea since). The first LATFOR maps are due out on Dec. 19.
UPDATE: We got that date from a source very familiar with the LATFOR operations, but another source (legislative) insists “there’s no timetable” for their release.
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