Sen. Ruben Diaz admits he’s not a professional pundit or strategist, but he felt compelled to explain this afternoon why he and his Senate Democrats are in trouble and possibly won’t realize their quest to re-take the majority.

The Bronx Democrat says that:

*Sen. Suzi Oppenheimer’s retirement makes regaining the majority difficult.

*There’s a good chance NYC Councilman Lew Fidler will lose the March 20 special election to replace erstwhile Diaz amigo and former senator, Carl Kruger.

*The Independent Democratic Conference is highly unlikely to return to the fold unless the leadership (ie John Sampson et al) starts negotiating with Sen. Jeff Klein et al ASAP and agrees to give them pretty much anything they want.

Here’s the full missive:

“I am not a political analyst, I am not a political consultant, neither am I a political strategist, but looking at our recent situation as Democrats in the New York State Senate, I cannot refrain from putting in my two cents.”

“Can our leadership re-claim the Majority in the next year’s election? From what I see, this is not impossible, but it will be very difficult due to the fact that Senator Oppenheimer is resigning and I am very concerned that her seat might be won by a Republicans and the Democrats could lose that seat. Also, with Senator Carl Kruger’s resignation, that open seat might also be in jeopardy – there is a very good chance that a Republican may win that seat also.”

“There are other Senate seats occupied by Democrats throughout the state that might be in jeopardy. Aside from that, I believe that the four Senate Independent Democrats will never come back just to be simple Members of the Democratic Conference.”

“This is my opinion, and my advice for the Democratic leadership in New York State and in the State Senate: They should start negotiating right away with Senator Jeff Klein and his three Independent Members – even to the point, if necessary, for the New York State Senate to transfer Senator Klein’s leadership position and the leadership positions of his Members to the Democratic Conference.”

“Everyone needs to put aside all personal differences – and pride – and do with Senator Klein and his Members as was done with Pedro Espada when the Democrats wanted him back. The leadership needs to start this conversation now – before it’s too late. Otherwise, I am afraid that we will never see the Majority again.”

“These are my two cents.”

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