Today’s Q poll is a mixed bag for GOP/Conservative gubernatorial designee Rick Lazio, showing him with a double-digit lead over his primary opponent, Carl Paladino, but with 49 percent of Republicans who have a favorite in the race saying they’re open to changing their minds before the Sept. 14 election.

The former Long Island congressman leads the Buffalo businessman, 47-35, among likely GOP primary voters, with 18 percent still undecided.

A Siena NY poll in mid-August found Paladino trailing Lazio by 13 percentage points, down from 20 points in July and 27 points in June.

This Q poll seems to indicate Paladino hasn’t, in fact, managed to gain any ground on Lazio, in spite of defections by GOP county chairs and elected officials and perception that momentum is on his side. However, Paladino’s support looks a little stronger as 62 percent of his voters say their mind is made up, compared to 42 percent of Lazio backers.

“ith many of his supporters open to changing their minds, Rick Lazio has a shaky lead,” said Q pollster Mickey Carroll.

“The people who like Carl Paladino are more likely than Lazio’s voters to have made up their minds to stick with him. But an awful lot of voters don’t know much about him. Can he convince enough voters that he’s the Republican to run against Andrew Cuomo with a big TV blitz in the next two weeks? We’ll have to wait and see.”

A Paladino source told me the campaign is planning a “blitzkrieg” of last-minute media – TV, radio and direct mail – leading up to the primary, but we have yet to see evidence of that. If the candidate goes through with that plan, he might be able to push past Lazio – but it’s going to be an uphill climb.

A lot depends on turnout, which is expected to be low across the state with small pockets of activity in state Senate and congressional districts that have active GOP primaries.

The NY-1 race on Long Island could benefit Lazio. Paladino is going to have a strong showing in his native Western NY, but it’s unlikely that alone would win him the race.

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