GOP gubernatorial candidate Carl Paladino is gearing up for a shock-and-awe style spending spree over the next two weeks in hopes of raising his name recognition and capitalizing on his momentum to defeat frontrunner Rick Lazio in the Sept. 14 primary.

“It will be a wall-to-wall blitzkrieg that will leave people stunned,” a Paladino source predicted. “It will be saturation TV upstate, with heavy levels in broadcast and a very heavy schedule of cable in Staten Island, Long Island, Brooklyn, Queens – basically everywhere but Manhattan and the Bronx.”

According to this source, Paladino’s media buys have been “very efficient,” which includes a near-constant presence on FOX (seven out of 10 likely primary voters say they watch the network every day, I’m told).

Also part of Paladino’s pre-primary strategy: At least five pieces of voter mail and “continuing saturation” on conservative talk radio.

Low turnout is being predicted on both sides of the aisle for the Sept. 14 contests, and the GOP has far fewer enrolled voters to begin with. It’s possible the elections could be decided by as few as 500,000 people, making the outcome very difficult to predict.

Lazio, who is in Amityville today, has a base of support on his native Long Island, which could see an uptick in turnout due to the contentious three-way GOP primary in NY-1, although if that generates interest among Tea Partiers, it could be benefit Paladino.

There’s also the NY-23 fight between Matt Doheny and Doug Hoffman, which has turned nasty of late. I don’t see either Lazio or Paladino as a favorite in that particular neck of the state, though. (Jude Seymour, tell me if I’m wrong on that one).

There are some state Senate GOP primaries that could draw some voters out, too.

A three-way battle for the seat retiring Sen. Dale Volker is vacating in WNY (59th SD), which is Paladino’s base.

The fight between Assembylman Greg Ball and Somers Supervisor Mary Beth Murphy for departing Sen. Vinnie Leibell’s seat (40th SD) has become quite heated and might generate some turnout, although I’m not sure which of the gubernatorial hopefuls that would benefit the most – perhaps Lazio, since he now lives in Westchester and the district includes about half of the county?

In the 53rd SD, two assemblymen – Jim Bacalles and Tom O’Mara – are duking it out over retiring Sen. George Winner’s seat. Hydrofracking has become an issue in that race, and considering how passionately people feel about that, it could drive up turnout.

Today’s Q poll found Paladino’s favorable/unfavorable rating at 16-13 with 70 percent of New Yorkers saying they don’t know enough about him to have an opinion.

The Q poll did not test a head-to-head Paladino vs. Lazio match-up, but an Aug. 18 Siena NY poll showed Paladino had closed the gap between himself and Lazio to 13 percentage points among Republicans.

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